Weak Monsoon in India

Context

The Government of India has formulated contingency plans for over 300 vulnerable districts as a weak southwest monsoon, coupled with emerging El Niño conditions, threatens agriculture, water security, and rural livelihoods.

Significance of the Southwest Monsoon

The southwest monsoon contributes nearly 70–75% of India’s annual rainfall during the June–September season and is crucial for:

1. Kharif crop cultivation.
2. Groundwater recharge and reservoir replenishment.
3. Hydropower generation and drinking water supply.
4. Rural livelihoods and overall economic growth.

As nearly half of India’s cultivated land remains rain-fed, deficient or delayed monsoon rainfall can significantly reduce agricultural production and farm incomes.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) defines normal monsoon rainfall as 96–104% of the Long Period Average (87 cm). For 2026, it has projected rainfall at around 90% of the LPA, indicating a below-normal southwest monsoon.

Current Monsoon Conditions

The ongoing monsoon season has been marked by:

1. A significant rainfall deficit, particularly during June.
2. Delayed advance of the southwest monsoon.
3. Uneven spatial distribution of rainfall, affecting kharif sowing.

These conditions may adversely affect agricultural productivity even if rainfall improves later in the season.

Factors Behind the Weak Monsoon

The present rainfall deficit has primarily resulted from:

1. Weak low-pressure systems.
2. Reduced strength of monsoon currents.
3. An unfavourable phase of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), which influences tropical rainfall patterns.

Although El Niño has developed over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, its influence on the Indian monsoon is expected to strengthen as the season progresses.

Government Response

The Government has prepared contingency plans for 315 vulnerable districts, including 111 high-priority and 76 medium-priority districts, with emphasis on:

1. Promoting short-duration and less water-intensive crops, such as pulses, millets, and oilseeds.
2. Strengthening ponds, check dams, rainwater harvesting structures, and other local water conservation systems.
3. Conserving soil moisture to support agriculture during prolonged dry spells.

Factors Enhancing India’s Resilience

India is better positioned to manage a weak monsoon due to:

1. Improved reservoir storage and groundwater availability.
2. Expansion of watershed development and rainwater harvesting.
3. Growing use of solar and wind energy, reducing dependence on hydropower and conserving reservoir water for irrigation and drinking purposes.
4. Improved weather forecasting and wider adoption of climate-resilient farming practices.

Likely Impacts

A prolonged weak monsoon can:

1. Reduce production of major kharif crops, including rice, maize, soybean, cotton, and sugarcane.
2. Lower farm incomes and weaken rural demand.
3. Increase food inflation.
4. Intensify water stress in rain-fed and drought-prone regions.
5. Moderate overall economic growth.

Way Forward

Strengthening long-term resilience requires:

1. Crop diversification and promotion of drought-resistant crop varieties.
2. Expansion of irrigation and efficient water-use technologies.
3. Integrated watershed management and rainwater harvesting.
4. Strengthening weather forecasting, early warning systems, and decentralised contingency planning.

Conclusion

The increasing variability of the southwest monsoon shows that the challenge extends beyond the quantity of rainfall to its timing, spatial distribution, and intensity. Strengthening climate-resilient agriculture, sustainable water management, and adaptive planning will be essential to ensuring food security, protecting rural livelihoods, supporting sustainable agricultural growth, and promoting long-term economic resilience.