Context
Recently, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) introduced India’s first AI-enabled block-level monsoon forecasting system for providing early and localised forecasts of rainfall and monsoon onset.
About AI-enabled block-level monsoon forecasting system
- The India Meteorological Department (IMD), along with the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, and the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), has developed India’s first AI-enabled block-level monsoon forecasting system.
- The system combines artificial intelligence with numerical weather prediction models to generate forecasts of monsoon progression up to four weeks in advance.
- Forecasts are released every Wednesday and currently have an estimated error margin of around four days.
- Monsoon onset is assessed on the basis of a continuous five-day rainfall spell and the absence of prolonged dry conditions during the following 30 days.
- The initiative is aimed at providing hyperlocal and impact-based weather services, particularly for rainfed agricultural regions where monsoon timing is critical for farming and water management.
- Forecast information and alerts are disseminated through mobile applications, SMS services and agricultural extension networks.
- At present, the forecasting system covers 3,196 blocks across 15 states and one Union Territory, with plans for gradual expansion to other parts of the country.
