Rising Nuclear Risks: The Global Order Under Strain

Context

The global nuclear order faces fresh uncertainty after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. would start testing nuclear weapons again, raising fears of the return of nuclear explosive testing and a new arms race at a time when major arms-control agreements are weakening.

Background

1. After witnessing the destruction that nuclear weapons caused in Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945, countries decided not to use them. So, during the last 80 years, nuclear weapons have not been used.
2. Also, global arsenals have been reduced from 65,000 bombs in the 1970s to less than 12,500 in 2025.
3. Today only 9 countries have nuclear weapons: 5 are permanent members of UNSC (USA, Russia, China, France and UK) who tested before the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and 4 tested after NPT (India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea).
4. Despite these achievements, global nuclear order is under strain as the US President announced that they would start testing nuclear weapons again.

What are Nuclear Weapons?

1. Nuclear weapons are highly destructive explosives that derive their power from nuclear fission or fusion reactions, producing devastation far greater than conventional bombs.
2. They cause immediate blast damage and long-term radiation effects, can be delivered through missiles, aircraft or submarines, and are primarily maintained by states as tools of deterrence.

What is the Global Nuclear Order?

1. The global nuclear order refers to the set of norms, treaties, institutions, and power arrangements that control how nuclear weapons are developed, tested, deployed, and used across the world.
2. It is the system that keeps nuclear weapons from spreading and prevents their use, while managing existing arsenals among nuclear-armed states.
3. Three Key Pillars:
   1. Non-Proliferation: This pillar focuses on preventing the spread of nuclear weapons to additional states and is the cornerstone of the global nuclear order. (Example: NPT, CTBT)
   2. Disarmament: This involves initiatives aimed at reducing and eventually eliminating existing nuclear arsenals worldwide. (Eg: New START Treaty)
   3. Peaceful Use of Nuclear Energy: This pillar promotes the use of nuclear technology for peaceful purposes like power generation, medicine, and agriculture. (Eg: Nuclear Supplier Group – NSG)

What is the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)?

1. It is an international treaty (binding) designed to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy, and advance the goal of nuclear disarmament and complete global disarmament.
2. It defines Nuclear-Weapon States (NWS) as those which possess nuclear weapons before 1st January , 1967.
3. Key Provisions:
   1. NWS agree to not help non-NWS to develop or acquire nuclear weapons.
   2. Allows for peaceful use of nuclear energy and provides a withdrawal option if national security is concerned.
   3. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is tasked with inspection and compliance.
   4. Total 191 members (India is not a member).
4. India’s stance: India opposes this treaty, calling it discriminatory, as it allows nuclear weapons for 5 countries but denies the same rights to others. India follows “No first use” Policy and is committed to global disarmament.

What is a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT)?

1. In the cold war period, many countries conducted over 2000 nuclear tests, creating global environmental and health concerns.
2. Earlier treaties, the Limited Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty (1963) and the Threshold Test-Ban Treaty (1974), restricted some tests but still allowed underground nuclear explosions, leaving a major loophole.
3. This led to negotiations for a complete ban at the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva (1994) and the UN adopted CTBT in 1996. China and France conducted their final tests just before the treaty’s adoption.
4. It is a global agreement aimed at banning all nuclear explosions for every purpose (military or peaceful).
   But it does not define what constitutes a nuclear test, allowing nations to conduct zero-yield hydronuclear experiments.
5. The treaty will only enter into force when 44 specific “Annex-2” states ratify it; however, eight of these states (United States, China, India, Pakistan, Israel, Iran, Egypt, North Korea) have not ratified or signed, so it remains inactive.
6. Because the treaty bans testing but does not require nuclear disarmament, India refused to sign it, calling it discriminatory.
7. In 2023, Russia withdrew its ratification, raising fresh doubts about the future of the treaty and its ability to enter into force.

What is the New START Treaty?

1. The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty is the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement between the United States of America and Russia.
2. It aims to limit strategic nuclear weapons, keeping the number of deployed nuclear warheads far below Cold War levels.
3. The treaty was signed in Prague in 2010 by U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.
4. It entered into force on February 5, 2011 and replaced the 1991 START I Treaty, which had expired in 2009, and also superseded the 2002 Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty.
5. The New START sets limits on deployed long–range nuclear weapons, which are designed to strike deep targets such as command centres, infrastructure, and major military assets.
6. Both the United States and Russia confirmed that they had met the treaty’s limits by February 5, 2018.
7. In 2021, the treaty was extended for five more years, pushing its validity to February 4, 2026.
8. The treaty is now at risk because the USA-Russia dialogue has stalled, raising concerns that New START may expire without replacement, potentially triggering a new arms race.

Current Global Developments

1. Russia: Tested a nuclear-powered cruise missile (Burevestnik) and an underwater nuclear-powered torpedo (Poseidon).
2. China: Has been testing hypersonic missiles. In 2021, it tested a nuclear capable hypersonic glide vehicle which was carried on a rocket.
3. USA: It has been producing new warheads like a variable yield B61-13 gravity bomb, a low yield W76-2 warhead for the Trident II D-5 missile. It is also working on a new nuclear armed submarine launched cruise missile.
4. Yet, these countries have refrained from explosive testing with Russia’s last one in 1990 and USA’s last one in 1992.

Implications

1. Possible renewed global nuclear arms race if the U.S. resumes explosive testing.
2. Arms-control system weakening as CTBT remains inactive and New START nears expiry.
3. Low-yield nuclear weapons increase chances of actual battlefield use.
4. Higher risk of miscalculation due to new technologies like hypersonic and nuclear-powered systems.
5. South Asia instability if India and Pakistan feel compelled to resume tests.
6. Non-proliferation norms weaken, encouraging more states to consider nuclear options.
7. Global geopolitical tensions rise, increasing risks of escalation.

Challenges and Way Forward

Conclusion

The global nuclear order is under serious strain as testing may resume, treaties weaken, and new technologies accelerate risks. To prevent a new arms race, the world must rebuild trust, revive arms-control efforts, and preserve the long-standing taboo on nuclear use. Only coordinated global action can protect nuclear stability in the coming decades.