Putin’s 2025 India Visit

Context

1. Russian President Vladimir Putin is visiting India on 4–5 December 2025 for the 23rd India–Russia Annual Summit. This is his first visit after the 2022 Ukraine war, at a time when:
   1. Russia faces Western sanctions.
   2. India is under pressure due to US tariffs and secondary sanctions on Russian oil purchases.
   3. India–China tensions remain high.
2. The visit reflects India’s attempt to maintain traditional ties with Moscow while deepening partnerships with the West.

India – Russia Relations

Background

1. Current geopolitical setting
   1. Post-Ukraine war: Russia sanctioned → Russia tilts closer to China.
   2. India needs diversified partnerships to counter China and access advanced Western technology.
2. India’s strategic doctrine
   1. India’s foreign policy uses multi-alignment:
      1. Defence + discounts from Russia.
      2. Markets + tech + capital from US/EU.

• Stability against China through both blocs.

How did ties look during Putin’s first visit (2000)?

1. India under Western sanctions (Pokhran-II).
2. Russia weak after Soviet collapse.
3. India–Pakistan tensions high post-Kargil.
4. Putin’s visit signaled revival of old ties.

Why is the 2025 visit significant?

1. First visit since the Russia–Ukraine war (2022).
2. Russia under heavy sanctions; India facing secondary sanctions on energy imports.
3. US tariffs on India raised vulnerability.
4. India–Pakistan conflict resurfaced in May 2025.
5. Security concerns after the Red Fort blast.

Defence partnership

1. India has reduced dependence but still needs Russian spares & maintenance.
2. Key systems: S-400, Sukhoi aircraft, submarines, BrahMos.
3. Russia delivered only 3 of 5 S-400 units due to war constraints.
4. Western sanctions affect Russia’s capacity for high-tech defence production.

The oil factor

1. India bought discounted Russian crude → helped contain inflation.
2. But secondary US/EU sanctions made purchases difficult.
3. India’s trade with Russia reached $68.7 bn (imports hugely higher due to oil).
4. This imbalance threatens the $100 bn by 2030 trade target.

Expected outcomes of the visit

Likely progress on:

1. Labour mobility pact.
2. Trade talks with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).
3. New defence purchases (S-400, Sukhois).
4. Wider access for Indian agricultural & pharma exports.

India’s strategic balancing

1. India wants:
   1. Western technology + markets, and
   2. Russian defence + geopolitical coordination.
2. This balancing is shaped by:
   1. China’s closeness with Russia.
   2. India’s unresolved border tensions (50,000 troops deployed).
   3. Need to prevent Russia–China alignment from harming Indian security interests.

The China factor

India must ensure:

1. Russian military technology given to India is not shared with China.
2. Russia–China partnership does not undermine Indian security.

Putin’s reassurance that Russia does not transfer Indian-shared technologies to others must be constantly verified.

Implications

1. For India’s China strategy: Partnership with both West and Russia strengthens deterrence against China.
2. For defence procurement: India may secure spares and support for legacy Russian systems, reducing vulnerability.
3. For energy security: New sanctions reduce the economic advantage of Russian oil; India may need alternative suppliers.
4. For India–US relations: Close optics with Putin will be watched; India must avoid appearing to “tilt” toward Russia.
5. For Russia: India remains one of Moscow’s few major economic partners, giving Russia diplomatic breathing space.
6. For the Indo-Pacific balance: India’s multi-alignment model may emerge as a template for middle powers.

Challenges & Way Forward

Conclusion

Putin’s visit offers India an opportunity to stabilise defence and energy ties while signalling strategic autonomy. India must carefully balance its growing Western partnerships with its longstanding Russian ties to manage China and maintain room for manoeuvre in a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape.