India’s Progress on Its Climate Targets

Context

More than a decade after India made quantified climate commitments at the Paris climate summit (2015), questions have arisen on whether these targets have translated into real emissions reduction. Recent environmental debates, including court scrutiny of ecological protection and mining, have renewed focus on India’s actual climate performance.

What is India’s Climate Commitment?

At the Paris climate summit, India committed to four major climate targets based on the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities:

1. Reduce emissions intensity of GDP by 33-35% by 2030 from the 2005 baseline.
2. Increase non-fossil fuel power capacity to 40% (later raised to 50%) by 2030.
3. Achieve 175 GW of renewable energy capacity (later expanded to 500 GW by 2030).
4. Create an additional carbon sink of 2.5-3 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent through forests.

These targets focus mainly on intensity reduction and capacity creation, not direct caps on total emissions.

Why Climate Targets Matter for India?

1. India is now the third-largest emitter in absolute terms, despite low per capita emissions.
2. Climate action is essential for energy security, public health, ecological protection, and sustainable growth.
3. Meeting global climate goals requires not only relative improvements but also absolute emission moderation.

How Has India Performed So Far?

1. Emissions Intensity Reduction (Partial Success)
   1. India reduced emissions intensity by ~36% by 2020, achieving its 2030 target a decade early.
   2. This was driven by:
      1. Rapid growth of non-fossil power capacity
      2. Shift towards services and digital sectors

• Efficiency programmes like Perform, Achieve and Trade (PAT) and UJALA

1. However, absolute emissions remain high at around 2,959 MtCO₂e (2020) and have not declined meaningfully.

2. Renewable Energy Expansion (Capacity-Generation Gap)
   2025. Non-fossil capacity increased from ~30% (2015) to over 51% by mid-2025.
   2026. Solar capacity rose dramatically from 8 GW (2014) to ~111 GW (2025).
   2027. Wind growth has been slower due to land and regulatory issues.
   2028. Key problem:
         1. Renewables account for over 50% of capacity but only ~22% of electricity generation.
         2. Coal still provides over 70% of electricity, as it supplies continuous baseload power.
   2029. Storage and Grid Constraints
         1. Renewable energy suffers from intermittency (solar and wind).
         2. Storage is the biggest bottleneck:
            1. Required by 2029-30: 336 GWh
            2. Operational by 2025: ~500 MWh only
         3. Grid connectivity delays and land acquisition issues further slow progress.
   2030. Forest Carbon Sink (Numbers vs Ecology)
         1. Official data shows India is close to achieving the forest carbon sink target.
         2. However, concerns remain:
            1. “Forest cover” includes plantations and monocultures, not just natural forests.
            2. Increase in forest cover between 2021-23 was only 156 sq km.

• Funds under Compensatory Afforestation remain underutilised in many States.

1. Climate stress (heat and water scarcity) reduces actual carbon absorption despite “greening” signals.

Implications

1. India has met headline climate commitments, especially on emissions intensity and capacity addition.
2. However, absolute emissions continue to rise, limiting climate impact.
3. Renewable expansion without storage and coal transition dilutes real emission gains.
4. Plantation-driven forest targets risk prioritising carbon accounting over biodiversity.

Challenges and Way Forward

Conclusion

India has largely delivered on its climate promises on paper, but real success depends on converting capacity into generation and intensity gains into absolute emission moderation. The next five years are crucial for scaling storage, managing coal transition, and strengthening ecological governance to ensure a genuinely sustainable future.