Why in the News?

1. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that monsoon rainfall in July will be above normal,
2. It is expected that monsoon rainfall will be about 6% more than the usual rainfall of 28 cm.
3. This is important because July is the most important month for farming in India.
4. Some States may receive very heavy rainfall, and people need to be careful, especially near rivers.

Aspect	Details
Definition	The monsoon is a seasonal wind system that brings heavy rainfall, especially in tropical and subtropical regions like India. It occurs due to the differential heating of land and sea.
Types of Monsoon	Southwest Monsoon (June–Sept): Brings heavy rain to most of India. Northeast Monsoon (Oct–Dec): Brings rain mainly to southeast India, especially Tamil Nadu.
Factors Affecting Monsoon	Differential Heating of Land and Sea: Land heats faster than the ocean, creating pressure difference. El Niño and La Niña: Ocean conditions in the Pacific Ocean can increase or decrease rainfall. Jet Streams: High-altitude winds that influence monsoon arrival and strength. Himalayas: Act as a barrier, forcing moist air to rise and cause rain. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): Affects sea surface temperatures and moisture supply. Topography: Hills and mountains increase rainfall in windward regions.

What are the Key Highlights of the Monsoon Forecast?

1. Above Normal Rainfall in July:
   1. July, the most crucial month for agriculture, is expected to receive above-normal rainfall.
   2. IMD predicts around 6% more rainfall than the normal 28 cm for the month.
2. Overall Monsoon (June–September):
   1. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has maintained its earlier forecast of the monsoon being 6% above normal for the entire season.
3. Regions of Concern:
   1. States likely to receive excess rain:
      1. East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, parts of Vidarbha, and Telangana.
   2. Watchlist due to surplus rain risks:
      1. Chhattisgarh, Odisha, and Telangana must remain alert.
4. Impact on River Basins:
   1. Heavy rainfall expected in major river catchments:
      1. Krishna, Godavari, and Mahanadi basins.
   2. Specific Concern Areas:
      1. Upper Mahanadi catchment in Chhattisgarh and parts of Odisha.
      2. Lower Mahanadi catchment is also expected to receive high rainfall.
5. Advisory by IMD:
   1. Authorities should monitor rainfall closely, especially in the river catchment areas, to prevent possible flooding or water management issues.
6. Early Completion of Monsoon Coverage:
   1. On June 29, the monsoon covered the entire country, which is 9 days earlier than the usual date of July 8.
   2. This is only the 13th time since 1960 that full coverage occurred in June.
   3. In 6 out of those 12 previous instances, overall monsoon rainfall was above normal.
7. Monsoon Onset and June Performance:
   1. Monsoon reached Kerala early, by about a week before the usual June 1 date.
   2. However, it stalled soon after onset, and resumed significantly only after June 16.
   3. June rainfall overall has been 8.9% above normal so far.
8. Regional Rainfall Distribution (June):
   1. Northwest India: Received 42% more rain than normal.
   2. Central India: Received 24.8% more than normal.
   3. South India: Facing a rainfall deficit of about 3%.
   4. Eastern and Northeastern India: Lagging behind in rainfall.
9. Cause of Strong Rainfall:
   1. The absence of El Niño is a key factor behind expected strong rainfall in the coming weeks.
10. Forecast and Preparedness Advisory:
    1. Heavy rains are expected in July, especially over central India.
       1. IMD will continue to issue:
          1. Short-term forecasts
          2. Extended range forecasts (up to 2 weeks in advance)
       2. Precautionary measures are advised for all regions likely to be affected.

What are the Significances?

1.  Agricultural Benefits:
   1. Timely sowing: Early arrival and widespread coverage of monsoon enables farmers to begin sowing kharif crops (like paddy, pulses, and oilseeds) on time.
   2. Higher crop yields: Adequate and well-distributed rainfall improves soil moisture, leading to better crop growth and higher productivity.
   3. Reduced irrigation stress: Rain-fed regions will rely less on groundwater and irrigation infrastructure, conserving water resources.
2. Economic Impact:
   1. Boost to rural economy: Good monsoon supports agricultural income, rural employment, and overall rural demand, which can boost consumption in the broader economy.
   2. Control on inflation: Healthy food grain production helps keep food prices stable, thereby reducing inflationary pressure.
   3. Improved GDP outlook: Agriculture contributes significantly to GDP and employment. A good monsoon positively affects the macroeconomic stability of the country.
3.  Water Resource Management:
   1. Refilling of reservoirs and aquifers: Surplus rainfall aids in replenishing dam reservoirs, groundwater tables, and rivers, ensuring better water availability for agriculture, drinking, and hydropower.
   2. Hydropower generation boost: Increased water flow in rivers and dams supports power generation, reducing dependence on fossil fuels.
4. Disaster Preparedness and Challenges:
   1. Flood risk in vulnerable regions: Heavy rainfall in catchment areas (like Krishna, Godavari, and Mahanadi) increases the risk of flash floods and dam overflows.
   2. Need for preparedness: Early warnings and short-range forecasts from IMD allow better planning and disaster response, especially in high-rainfall zones like central and eastern India.
5. Climatic Insight:
   1. Absence of El Niño conditions suggests a favorable climatic phase which generally supports better rainfall. This provides useful data for long-term climate planning and monsoon modelling.
6. Policy Implications:
   1. Support to government schemes: Timely and good monsoon enhances the outcomes of schemes like PMFBY (crop insurance), PM-KISAN, and irrigation projects.
   2. Need for balanced regional planning: Regions like south India and northeast India with rainfall deficits may require additional support and contingency crop planning.

What are the Challenges and Way Forward?

Challenges	Way Forward
1. Flood Risk in River Basins: Excess rain in Krishna, Godavari, and Mahanadi catchments may cause flooding.	Strengthen flood forecasting systems and ensure real-time monitoring of river flows.
2. Regional Rainfall Imbalance: South and Northeast India face rainfall deficits.	Promote contingency crop plans and ensure drought-resilient seeds and water management.
3. Soil Erosion and Crop Damage: Heavy rains can damage young crops and erode fertile topsoil.	Encourage soil conservation techniques and timely crop insurance coverage under PMFBY.
4. Urban Flooding and Drainage Issues: Cities may witness water logging due to poor drainage infrastructure.	Improve urban drainage systems and integrate climate-resilient urban planning.
5. Water Management Imbalance: Uneven rainfall may lead to overfilling of some dams and dryness in others.	Adopt basin-wise water management and promote interlinking of rivers where feasible.
6. Pest and Disease Outbreaks: Warm, wet conditions can increase crop diseases and pests.	Strengthen agricultural extension services and promote integrated pest management.

Conclusion

The early and above-normal monsoon is a good sign for agriculture and water supply. However, it also brings risks of floods and excess water in rivers. Careful planning, monitoring, and timely action will help manage the situation well and support both farmers and the general public.

El Niño, La Niña and ENSO What is ENSO? ENSO stands for El Niño–Southern Oscillation. It is a natural climate pattern that occurs in the tropical Pacific Ocean. ENSO includes changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric pressure, which affect global weather, especially the Indian monsoon. ENSO has three phases: El Niño: Warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific.   La Niña: Cooling of sea surface temperatures in the same region. Neutral: Sea temperatures are near normal; no El Niño or La Niña conditions.   El Niño – Detailed Information Aspect Details Meaning Spanish for “The Little Boy” – refers to warm ocean waters Location Begins off the coast of Peru and Ecuador in the eastern Pacific Ocean Sea Temperature Rises 0.5°C or more above normal, sustained for 3 months or more Wind Pattern Trade winds weaken, reducing upwelling (cold water rising to surface) Impact on India - Weak monsoon - Droughts in parts of India - Hotter summers Global Impact - Droughts in Australia, Southeast Asia - Floods in South America Duration Typically 9 to 12 months, sometimes longer Recent Example 2023–24 had a strong El Niño event   La Niña – Detailed Information Aspect Details Meaning Spanish for “The Little Girl” – refers to cold ocean waters Location Cooling of waters in central and eastern tropical Pacific Sea Temperature Drops 0.5°C or more below normal, for 3 months or more Wind Pattern Trade winds strengthen, causing more upwelling Impact on India - Stronger monsoon - Higher rainfall - Cooler temperatures Global Impact - Flooding in India, Indonesia, Australia - Drought in South America Duration Usually 9–12 months, may last up to 2 years Recent Example 2020–2022 saw a rare three-year La Niña event   How the ENSO Cycle Works?  Stage Description 1. Normal Conditions Trade winds blow westward, warm water piles up near Indonesia, cold water rises near South America. 2. El Niño Begins Trade winds weaken, warm water shifts eastward, cold upwelling reduces. 3. El Niño Peak Central and eastern Pacific becomes unusually warm, and rainfall shifts eastward. 4. El Niño Fades Trade winds begin to recover, warm water starts to move back west. 5. La Niña Begins Trade winds become stronger than normal, cold water surfaces in the eastern Pacific. 6. La Niña Peak Very strong upwelling, more clouds and rain over India, Indonesia, and Australia. 7. Neutral Conditions Return Ocean temperatures and wind patterns return to normal levels.   How is ENSO Monitored? Method What It Measures Nino 3.4 SST Sea surface temperature in the central Pacific – main indicator of ENSO SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) Pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia ONI (Oceanic Niño Index) 3-month average SST anomaly in Nino 3.4 region Buoy Networks Floating instruments measuring sea temperature, winds, currents Satellite Data Tracks sea surface height, temperature, wind, and cloud patterns Effect of ENSO on Indian Monsoon ENSO Phase Impact on India El Niño Weak monsoon, delayed onset, drought risk La Niña Strong monsoon, early onset, flood risk Neutral Normal monsoon patterns

 

Ensure IAS Mains Question: Q. “The forecast of above-normal monsoon brings both opportunities and risks.”In this context, critically analyse the likely impact of this monsoon pattern on agriculture, economy, and disaster management. Suggest region-specific strategies to maximise benefits and minimise losses. (250 Words)

 

Ensure IAS Prelim MCQ: MCQ 1: With reference to the Indian monsoon, consider the following statements: The monsoon covered the entire Indian subcontinent in June 2025, which is an unusual occurrence. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted below-normal rainfall in July 2025. Central India is likely to receive heavy rainfall due to the presence of a strong El Niño. How many of the above statements are correct?  (A) Only one  (B) Only two  (C) All three  (D) None Answer: A Explanation: Statement 1 is correct: In 2025, the monsoon covered the entire country by June 29, 9 days early, which is rare (only the 13th time since 1960). Statement 2 is incorrect: IMD has forecasted above-normal rainfall in July 2025, around 6% more than average. Statement 3 is incorrect: The strong rainfall is due to the absence of El Niño, not its presence.