Bangladesh Crisis: An unprecedented Coup

Recent Context

• On August 5, 2024, Sheikh Hasina, the former Prime Minister of Bangladesh, was removed from her position and exiled, bringing an end to her leadership that began in January 2009.
• Significantly at the same day she resigned from the post due to intense protests over job quotas.
• The protests had escalated, leading to significant unrest and pressure on the government.
• Sheikh Hasina exited via helicopter, landing at Hindon Air Base Ghaziabad , near New Delhi.

Sheikh Hasina's Background

• Early Life: Sheikh Hasina was born into a Muslim family in East Bengal (now Bangladesh) in 1947.
  • Her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, is known as the founding father and first president of Bangladesh.
  • He played a crucial role in leading the country’s independence from Pakistan in 1971. His leadership and vision were instrumental in shaping the new nation.
• Family Tragedy: Sheikh Hasina had three brothers, all of whom were assassinated along with their parents on August 15, 1975.
  • This tragic event left a profound impact on the family and the nation.
  •  Her younger sister, Sheikh Rehana, was one of the only survivors of the 1975 assassination, as she was abroad at the time. The sisters have since been closely involved in political and social activities.

The Bangladesh Liberation War of 1971 The Bangladesh Liberation War was not just a struggle for independence led by Bangladeshi nationalists—religion played a significant role in sparking the conflict. The Pakistani government sought to reshape Bangladeshis into ideal Muslims by distancing them from their Hindu heritage. This idea of religious division was also central to the creation of Pakistan after the British colonization of the subcontinent.  Interestingly, while religion initially united Bangladesh and Pakistan as a single state during the partition, it ultimately became the force that drove them apart. Some of the important incidents related Making Bangladesh are given- Election: In 1970, the Awami League, led by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, won a victory in Pakistan's national elections, demanding autonomy for East Pakistan. The military junta in West Pakistan refused to concede power, leading to widespread protests. Genocide: The Pakistani military launched Operation Searchlight on March 25, 1971, unleashing a brutal crackdown on the Bengali population. Mass killings, rapes, and displacement followed. Mukti Bahini: The Bengali resistance forces, known as the Mukti Bahini, formed to fight for independence. Indian Involvement: India, concerned about the refugee crisis and the potential threat to its security, supported the Mukti Bahini and eventually intervened militarily in December 1971. Victory: The combined forces of the Mukti Bahini and the Indian Army defeated the Pakistani army, and Pakistan surrendered on December 16, 1971. Aftermath: Independence: Bangladesh emerged as an independent nation on December 16, 1971. Refugee Crisis: Millions of refugees returned to their homeland. Reconstruction: The new nation faced challenges of rebuilding and economic development.

Assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman

• On August 15, 1975, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, his wife, and their three sons were assassinated by army officials. This event marked a dark chapter in Bangladesh's history and had profound implications for the country's political landscape.
• Following the assassination, Sheikh Hasina and her younger sister, Sheikh Rehana, were the only survivors, as they were abroad at the time.
  • Hasina lived in exile in India before returning to Bangladesh in 1981. Upon her return, she assumed leadership of her father’s party, the Awami League, and began her political career.

Political Career of Sheikh Hasina

• Pro-Democracy Protests: Sheikh Hasina allied with other political parties to challenge the military rule of General Hussain Muhammed Ershad.
  • Her leadership during the pro-democracy street protests brought her into the national spotlight, establishing her as a strong political figure.
• First Term in Office (1996): Sheikh Hasina first assumed office in 1996. During her first term, she earned praise for signing a water-sharing deal with India and a peace agreement with tribal insurgents. These initiatives aimed to promote regional cooperation and internal stability.
• Criticism: Despite her achievements, Hasina's government faced criticism for alleged corruption and being overly accommodating to India.
  • These criticisms highlighted the challenges of governance and the need for transparency and accountability.
• Loss of Power (2001): In 2001, Hasina lost power to Begum Khaleda Zia of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).
  • The rivalry between Hasina and Zia, known as the “battling begums,” led to significant political conflict, including violence and extrajudicial killings. This period was marked by intense political competition and instability.
• Return to Power (2009): Hasina returned to power in 2009, during a caretaker government election. Despite numerous arrests, assassination attempts, and allegations of corruption, she remained a resilient political figure. Her ability to navigate political challenges and maintain her position reflects her political determination.

Achievements Under Hasina’s Leadership:

• Economic Transformation: Under Sheikh Hasina's leadership, Bangladesh has transformed from one of the world's poorest nations into one of the region's fastest-growing economies. This transformation has been driven by strategic economic policies and investments in key sectors.
• Poverty Reduction: The country's per capita income has tripled in the last decade, with over 25 million people lifted out of poverty. This significant reduction in poverty levels reflects the government's commitment to inclusive economic growth and social development.
• Garment Industry: The garment industry has been a major driver of Bangladesh’s economic growth, constituting the bulk of the country’s exports. The industry has provided employment opportunities and contributed to the country's economic prosperity.
• Infrastructure Development: Hasina's government has invested heavily in infrastructure, including the $2.9 billion Padma Bridge across the Ganges. This project, funded through domestic funds, loans, and development aid, is a testament to the government's commitment to improving connectivity and facilitating economic activity.

Controversies and Challenges:

• Job Quota Protests: The latest unrest in Bangladesh erupted over job quota reforms and expanded into broader anti-government protests. These protests highlighted the growing dissatisfaction among certain segments of the population with the government's policies.
• Economic Difficulties: Economic difficulties, exacerbated by the pandemic, have led to inflation, declining foreign exchange reserves, and rising foreign debt. These challenges have undermined the previous economic successes and raised concerns about the government's ability to manage the economy effectively.

Quota System History:

• Origins of the Quota System (1972 Introduction): After Bangladesh gained independence in 1971, the new government introduced a quota system to recognize and reward those who played a significant role in the liberation struggle. The system reserved 30% of government and semi-government jobs for the descendants of the freedom fighters who fought against Pakistani forces during the Liberation War. This included not just veterans but also their children and, later, their grandchildren.
• Expansion and Modifications (2011 Extension): In 2011, under Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s administration, the quota benefits were extended to include the grandchildren of freedom fighters. This was part of a broader policy to acknowledge the contributions of families who had been part of the independence movement.
• Withdrawal of the Quota System (2018 Removal): In October 2018, the government decided to withdraw the quota system for freedom fighters, citing concerns about fairness and merit-based recruitment. This move aimed to streamline the recruitment process and address issues of nepotism and favoritism.
• Legal Challenges and Recent Developments (June, 2024 - High Court Ruling): The High Court Division of Bangladesh’s Supreme Court ruled that the 2018 decision to remove the quota was arbitrary. The court reinstated the 30% quota after relatives of 1971 veterans filed petitions, arguing that they still represented one of the most disadvantaged groups in the country.

Ongoing Issues:

The debate over the quota system reflects broader issues related to employment fairness, historical recognition, and political dynamics in Bangladesh. The current unrest is fueled by these complex factors, including demands for reform and criticisms of both the quota system and the government's handling of the situation.

Impact of the Bangladesh Crisis on India Potential Loss of a Trusted Ally- India may have lost a reliable partner with the resignation of Sheikh Hasina as Bangladesh’s Prime Minister. Western Criticism- The unrest in Bangladesh and Sheikh Hasina’s eventual resignation placed India in a challenging diplomatic position, as it tries to balance relations with major international powers. India’s ongoing support for Sheikh Hasina has strained ties with Western allies, particularly the US. Risk of Anti-Indian Sentiment in Bangladesh- Sheikh Hasina’s close relationship with India could lead to anti-Indian sentiment among the Bangladeshi public, especially as she seeks refuge in India. Internal Security Threats: The most significant concern for India is the potential escalation of tensions in its northeastern states due to infiltration from Bangladesh. Persistent issues in the border areas, such as smuggling, illegal migration (including the Rohingya crisis), militancy, and radicalism, pose serious internal security challenges. China and Regional Geopolitics- Sheikh Hasina’s government managed relations with both India and China. It remains uncertain whether the opposition and interim government will adopt a similar approach. China often exploits weaknesses in neighboring countries to expand its influence. Uncertainties for Indian Investments in Bangladesh- The political instability in Bangladesh poses significant risks for Indian businesses and investors. Disruptions in trade or delays in payments could negatively impact Indian companies, particularly in the textile industry, where Indian firms own about 25% of the units.

Conclusion:

Sheikh Hasina resigned as Bangladesh's Prime Minister after a 15-year tenure marked by significant economic growth but increasingly authoritarian rule. Despite notable achievements like substantial poverty reduction and major infrastructure projects, her government faced widespread criticism for corruption, repression of dissent, and worsening inequality. Student-led protests over job quotas quickly grew into a broader movement against her regime's heavy-handed tactics, leading to her dramatic departure.

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