Afghanistan begins work on TAPI pipeline

Afghanistan is set to start work on the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline.

1. A USD 10 billion project aimed at boosting regional energy connectivity and driving economic development.
2. This follows years of delays largely due to security concerns in Afghanistan.

What is the TAPI Pipeline?

1. About: The TAPI pipeline is a major infrastructure project designed to transport natural gas from the Galkynysh gas field in Turkmenistan through Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India.
   1. Length: Approximately 1,814 kilometres.
   2. Capacity: Expected to deliver around 33 billion cubic metres (BCM) of natural gas annually.
   3. Distribution: Gas will be supplied to Afghanistan (5%), Pakistan (47.5%), and India (47.5%) over its 30-year operational period.
   4. Alias: Known as the ‘Peace Pipeline’ due to its potential to foster regional cooperation and stability.
   5. Origins: The project dates back to the 1990s, with significant progress made in 2003, supported by the Asian Development Bank (ADB). India joined the initiative in 2008.
   6. Management: The TAPI Pipeline Company Limited (TPCL), a joint venture among Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India, oversees construction and operation.

Significance:

1. Environmental Impact:

   1. The pipeline provides a cleaner alternative to coal, potentially reducing carbon dioxide emissions.
   2. For India, heavily reliant on coal, TAPI could facilitate a transition to cleaner energy sources and support its Net-Zero Emissions Target.
   3. It could help reduce air pollution in major cities like Delhi, Mumbai, Karachi, and Islamabad.

2. Economic Benefits:

   1. Transit Fees & Job Creation: The pipeline could stimulate economic growth in Afghanistan and Pakistan through transit fees and job opportunities.
   2. Renewable Energy Investment: It could also prompt investments in renewable energy sources in these countries.

3. Strategic Influence:

   1. Geopolitical Competition: TAPI serves as a counter to the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline, which is supported by Iran and Russia.
   2. Diversification for Turkmenistan: The pipeline allows Turkmenistan to reduce its dependence on existing routes to China and Russia.
   3. Counterweight to China: With China's investment in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), TAPI could act as a counterbalance, particularly in Pakistan.
   4. Regional Cooperation: Enhances cooperation among Central and South Asian countries, potentially fostering collaborations in energy, communication, and transportation.
   5. India’s Energy Partnership: Positions Turkmenistan as a key energy partner for India, aligning with India's strategy to improve regional connectivity and energy security.

Challenges Regarding the TAPI Pipeline:

1. Security Concerns:

   1. Most of the pipeline traverses Afghanistan, a region fraught with political instability and humanitarian crises, posing significant implementation challenges.

2. Financing and Administration:

   1. Funding: Securing adequate financing remains a major obstacle, with contributions expected from the Asian Development Fund and private investors.
   2. Administration: Managed by four separate pipeline companies representing each participating country, complicating oversight and coordination.

3. Investment Climate:

   1. Turkmenistan's Economy: The closed economy and limited global market integration, along with corruption and governance issues, pose investment challenges.

4. India-Pakistan Relations:

   1. Political Tensions: Existing conflicts between India and Pakistan could affect India's commitment to and the smooth operation of the pipeline.

5. Environmental Concerns:

   1. While natural gas is cleaner than coal, its extraction and transportation involve risks such as water and soil pollution and earthquakes from fracking.

India's Other Bilateral/Multilateral Energy Infrastructure Projects:

1. India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline

2. Motihari-Amlekhgunj Pipeline (India-Nepal)

3. Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC)

4. International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC)

How is India Enhancing its Influence in Central Asia?

1. Securing Trade Routes: Central Asia’s strategic location is vital for global powers. India's engagement aims to enhance regional influence and secure critical trade routes.

2. Economic Presence:

   1. The Chabahar Port Agreement with Iran helps India bypass traditional maritime chokepoints, improving trade routes to the South Caucasus and Central Asia.
   2. Negotiations for a free trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) aim to strengthen economic relations and access Eurasian markets.

3. Military and Security Initiatives:

   1. India maintains military bases in Tajikistan and conducts joint exercises with countries like Uzbekistan to build defense partnerships.

4. Geopolitical Challenges:

   1. China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) poses a challenge with its extensive infrastructure projects, potentially overshadowing India’s investments.
   2. Strained Relations: Tensions with Pakistan and China limit India’s overland trade routes, making reliance on maritime paths and regional alliances crucial.

Way Forward:

1. Alternative Funding: Explore funding sources beyond the ADB, including private sector investment and international financial institutions.
2. Investment Incentives: Provide tax breaks and subsidies to attract foreign investment and establish stable regulatory frameworks.
3. Industrial Development: Promote development along the pipeline route to create jobs and stimulate economic activity.
4. Regional Security: Strengthen security cooperation and establish a central coordinating body to ensure efficient management of the project.
5. Community Engagement: Foster relationships with local communities to gain support and minimize security risks.
6. Environmental Practices: Implement best practices for natural gas extraction and transportation to mitigate environmental impacts.

Conclusion:

The TAPI pipeline represents a significant step towards enhancing regional energy connectivity and fostering economic development across Central and South Asia. While the project holds considerable promise for reducing emissions, stimulating economic growth, and balancing geopolitical influences, it faces substantial challenges, including security concerns, financing issues, and environmental impacts. Addressing these challenges through strategic funding, regional cooperation, and robust management will be crucial for realizing the pipeline’s potential and ensuring its long-term success. The TAPI pipeline’s progress and impact will be closely watched as it unfolds, reflecting broader regional dynamics and India’s role in Central Asia.

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