1.5 degrees Celsius target will be ‘gone’ in a few years: UN report

28-10-2024

In October 2024, The Emissions Gap Report, an annual publication of the UN Environment Programme, warned that the Paris Agreement objective of keeping global rise in temperatures to within 1.5 degree Celsius would be “gone within a few years”.
A UN report reveals trends in global greenhouse gas emissions, particularly from major emitters like China and India.

Emission Increases:

China: Greenhouse gas emissions grew by 5.2% in 2023.
India: Emissions increased by 6.1% in the same year.
Global Emissions: Overall emissions in 2023 were 1.3% higher than in 2022.

The Emissions Gap Report:

The Emissions Gap Report is an annual publication by the UN Environment Programme, released ahead of climate change conferences.

Key highlights include:

Paris Agreement Target: The report states that the goal of keeping temperature rise within 1.5 degrees Celsius could be "gone within a few years."
The 2 degrees Celsius is also at risk unless countries drastically enhance their climate actions.
Current Climate Actions: The most optimistic scenario suggests that global greenhouse gas emissions could be reduced by only 10% by 2030 from 2019 levels, while a 42% reduction is necessary to keep the 1.5-degree target in sight.
The required reductions must escalate to 57% by 2035.
Updated Climate Plans: Countries are urged to submit significantly stronger climate action plans by next year, as current commitments are insufficient.

Urgent Action Needed:

The report emphasizes the need for a 7.5% annual reduction in emissions until 2035 to keep the 1.5-degree target viable.
There is a call for massive increases in investment to bridge the emissions gap for 2030 and 2035, estimated at US$ 200 per ton of CO2 equivalent.
This could potentially reduce about 31 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent annually by 2030, surpassing the nearly 28 billion tonnes needed to meet the 1.5-degree goal.

Upcoming Climate Conference:

In November 2024, the annual United Nations Climate Change Conference, also known as COP29, will be held in Baku, Azerbaijan.
Where delegates from around the world will gather to discuss crucial issues regarding significantly increasing financial resources dedicated to combating climate change.

1.5°C: What It Means and Why It Matters?

To mitigate the severe impacts of climate change and maintain a livable planet, global warming must be limited as urgently as possible, as highlighted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Under the Paris Agreement, countries committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions significantly to keep the long-term global average temperature increase well below 2°C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C.

Importance of 1.5°C:

COPs 26, 27, and 28: Countries recognized that the impacts of climate change would be much lower at a 1.5°C increase compared to 2°C and reaffirmed their commitment to this target.
Monthly or annual breaches of 1.5°C do not indicate a failure of the Paris Agreement, as these fluctuations are due to natural variability (e.g., El Niño, volcanic eruptions).
However, repeated breaches signal that we are nearing the long-term limit and necessitate heightened ambition and action.

Historical Context:

Temperature changes are measured against the pre-industrial baseline of 1850–1900, the earliest period with reliable temperature records.
The first monthly averages exceeding 1.5°C occurred in 2015-16 due to human-induced climate change and El Niño effects.
Recently, late 2023 and early 2024 also recorded monthly above 1.5°C.

Current Trends:

The first 12-month period to exceed 1.5°C was from February 2023 to January 2024, where the average global temperature was estimated to be 1.52°C above the pre-industrial average.
The last decade (2014-2023) has been the warmest on record, averaging 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels.

Implications of Warming:

Extreme Weather: Every fraction of a degree matters; even an additional 0.1°C can significantly increase the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, including droughts and heavy precipitation.
Risks: Limiting warming to below 1.5°C can reduce the risks and impacts of climate change, while exceeding it could lead to dangerous weather events, increased mortality from extreme heat, and potential climate tipping points (e.g., breakdowns in ocean circulation).

Economic and Social Costs:

The 55 most climate-vulnerable economies have incurred climate damages exceeding US$ 500 billion in the past two decades.
In 2022, disasters caused 32.6 million internal displacements, predominantly from weather-related hazards.

Health Impacts: The cumulative death toll from climate change is projected to exceed 4 million by 2024, primarily from malnutrition, disease, and extreme weather events.

Long-term Effects: Some climate impacts, such as sea-level rise and ocean acidification, are permanent and will take centuries to recover.

Thus, minimizing the duration of temperature exceedance above 1.5°C is crucial.

At COP28 in December 2023, governments agreed to enhance their national climate commitments to align with limiting warming to 1.5°C, based on the latest scientific findings.