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State of the World Population 2025: The Real Fertility Crisis

State of the World Population 2025: The Real Fertility Crisis

11-06-2025

Why in the News?

  1. United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) Report 2025: As per the State of the World Population Report 2025, India’s population reached 146.39 crore by April 2025.
  2. Fertility Decline: India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) declined to 1.9, which is below the replacement level of 2.1.

United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA):

  1. Establishment: Founded in 1969, UNFPA is the sexual and reproductive health agency of the United Nations.
  2. Mandate: Works to ensure universal access to reproductive health, promote gender equality, and support population data and policies.
  3. Flagship Reports: Publishes the annual State of World Population Report, providing global and country-level demographic trends.
  4. Key Focus Areas: Family planning, maternal health, adolescent health, and ending gender-based violence and harmful practices.
  5. India’s Partnership: UNFPA collaborates with the Government of India on issues like population stabilization, youth empowerment, and gender rights.

Total Fertility Rate (TFR):

  1. It measures the number of children a woman is expected to have throughout her reproductive age.

Replacement level of TFR:

  1. It is the rate needed for each generation to replace the previous generation’s population.
  2. In simple words, it means that, on average, each woman needs to have about 2 children so that the population size remains stable over time (without migration).


Key Highlights of the Report:

  1. Population Growth Trends
    1. India's population is projected to peak at 170 crores in the next 40 years, after which it will begin to decline.
    2. Current estimates closely match the Government of India’s projections published in 2019.
    3. The report designates India as the world’s most populous nation, while estimating China's population at 141.61 crore.
  2. Fertility and Demographic Transition
    1. The TFR of 1.9 reflects a shift below replacement level, indicating population stabilisation.
    2. Many Indian women now have fewer children than desired, signalling unmet reproductive goals.
  3. Youth Demographics
    1. India still has a youth advantage:
      1. 24% are aged 0–14 years.
      2. 17% are 10–19 years.
      3. 26% are 10–24 years.
    2. 68% of India’s population is in the working-age group (15–64).
    3. This provides India with the opportunity of the Demographic Dividend.
  4. Elderly Population
    1. Elderly (65 years and above) comprise 7% of the population, expected to rise with increasing life expectancy.
    2. Life expectancy at birth projected to be 71 years (men) and 74 years (women) by 2025.
  5. Unmet Fertility Goals – “The Real Crisis”
    1. Many women are not able to have the number of children they actually want.
    2. This happens because of problems like poor healthcare, lack of support, or social pressures.
    3. The report says this is more about women’s rights and choices, not about having too many people.

India’s Fertility Transition and the Road to Demographic Dividend:

  1. A Shift in Reproductive Choices Over Time:
    1. In 1960, India had a population of approximately 436 million, and the average woman had nearly 6 children.
    2. Back then, less than 1 in 4 women used contraception, and fewer than half had attended primary school.
    3. Over the decades, better education and healthcare access gave women more control over their bodies and choices.
    4. Today, the average woman has about 2 children, but many still lack full autonomy in deciding if, when, and how many children to have.
  2. Road to Demographic Dividend:
    1. Demographic dividend refers to the economic growth potential when the working-age population (15–64 years) is larger than the dependent population (children + elderly).
    2.  68% of India’s population is now in the working-age group (15–64 years), offering a unique growth window.
    3. This youth majority can boost economic growth, savings, and innovation—if provided with skills and jobs.
    4. India must act fast to educate, skill, and empower its youth to fully benefit from this demographic phase.

Challenges and Way Forward:

Challenges

Way Forward

1. Unmet Reproductive Goals

Many women have fewer children than they desire due to lack of access, information, or autonomy.

Reproductive Autonomy

Enhance women's reproductive health services, adolescent health, and quality education.

2. Ageing population

Rising share of elderly may stress health and social welfare systems in the coming decades.

Support Elderly Needs

Develop social security systems and healthcare infrastructure for the ageing population.

3. Delayed Census

2021 Census has been postponed; lack of updated data may hinder targeted policy making.

Census Completion

Speed up the 2021 Census process by March 2027 to provide updated demographic data for policymaking.

4. Youth employment

While the working-age population is high, job creation has not kept pace, risking demographic dividend loss.

Productive Age Utilisation

Leverage the working-age population through skill development and job creation.

5. Urban-rural disparity

Fertility transition varies across regions—southern states have lower TFR than northern ones.

Reduce regional gaps

Improve health, education, and family planning access in high-fertility rural areas to ensure balanced fertility across regions.

 

Ensure IAS Mains Question:

Q. "Demographic dividend is not a guarantee but a window of opportunity." Discuss how India can convert its demographic advantage into economic gains, and highlight the regional challenges in achieving this. (150 words)

 

Ensure IAS Prelims Question:

Q. With reference to the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), consider the following statements:

  1. TFR refers to the average number of children a woman is expected to have throughout her reproductive age.
  2. A TFR below 2.1 is always a sign of negative population growth.
  3. Socio-economic factors like women’s education and access to healthcare affect TFR.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

  1. 1 and 2 only
  2. 1 and 3 only
  3. 2 and 3 only
  4. 1, 2 and 3

Answer: b

Explanation:

Statement 1 is correct: TFR is the average number of children a woman is likely to have during her reproductive years, based on current birth rates. It helps understand population trends without needing data on actual births or deaths.

Statement 2 is incorrect: A TFR below 2.1 does not always lead to negative population growth. Due to population momentum, where a large young population continues to reproduce, the population can still grow for some decades even if fertility is below replacement level.

Statement 3 is correct: Higher levels of female education, better healthcare, and increased access to family planning services are strongly linked to lower fertility rates, as they empower women to make informed reproductive choices and delay or reduce childbearing.

 

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