Why in the News?
- The Asian tour of the Prime Minister, visiting Tokyo for bilateral talks with Japan and Tianjin for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, seems to be consequential.
- This visit comes amid growing trade tensions between India and the US, making India’s engagements with Japan and China strategically significant.
- The visit offers a platform to strengthen India’s ties with Japan while cautiously exploring stability in relations with China.
Key Highlights
- India-US Tensions and Economic Context
- India faces trade-related friction with Washington, particularly under the Trump administration.
- Despite tensions, the US remains India’s largest export market with $88 billion in exports and a $45 billion surplus in 2024.
- Russia and China offer limited trade alternatives:
- Russia: $5 billion imports from India, $60 billion surplus.
- China: $15 billion imports from India, $100 billion surplus.
- India’s Economic Vulnerabilities with China
- Heavy dependence on Chinese industrial goods and technology inputs.
- Examples:
- Beijing’s ban on rare earth magnets, vital for India’s automobile sector.
- Refusal to supply tunnelling equipment for Himalayan projects.
- Withdrawal of Chinese engineers from Apple’s iPhone manufacturing in India.
- “Make in India” and “Buy Swadeshi” cannot immediately overcome these structural weaknesses.
- SCO Summit in Tianjin: Strategic Opportunities and Limitations
- SCO is projected as an anti-US Asian coalition, but internal contradictions persist.
- Key issues for India:
- China-Pakistan nexus within SCO.
- SCO’s inaction on Pakistan-backed terrorism, protected by China.
- India’s non-support for BRI, which is integral to China’s agenda.
- Possible optics:
- Pakistan may push for India-Pakistan dialogue at SCO platform.
- China is trying to deepen South Asian influence by supporting Bangladesh’s SCO entry.
- China’s Expanding Role in South Asia
- With SAARC inactive since 2014, China is filling the vacuum via SCO and new minilateral initiatives:
- Trilateral talks (China-Pakistan-Afghanistan).
- Engagements with Bangladesh and Myanmar.
- Beijing projects itself as South Asia’s development partner and stabiliser.
- With SAARC inactive since 2014, China is filling the vacuum via SCO and new minilateral initiatives:
- Tokyo Visit: Strengthening Strategic Ties with Japan
- India aims to elevate defence, technology, and trade cooperation with Japan.
- Context: Northeast Asia’s uncertainty due to Trump’s policies on tariffs and defence contributions.
- Trump’s policies have troubled US allies like Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan—raising tariffs, pushing for more defence spending, and demanding tech and wealth transfers. These countries still rely on the US but are now seeking more independence.
- India sees opportunity for deeper maritime partnerships with Japan and other US allies in Asia.
| About SCO: 1. Introduction a. Full Form: Shanghai Cooperation Organisation b. Type: Eurasian political, economic, and security alliance c. Headquarters: Beijing, China d. Formation: 15 June 2001 (Shanghai, China) e. Origin: Evolved from the Shanghai Five (1996) comprising China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan. 2. Objectives a. Strengthen relations among member states. b. Promote cooperation in political affairs, economics, and trade, scientific-technical, cultural, and educational spheres as well as in energy, transportation, tourism, and environmental protection. c. Safeguard regional peace, security, and stability. d. Create a democratic, equitable international political and economic order. 3. Members a. Founding Members (6): China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan (joined 2001). b. New Members (2017): India and Pakistan. c. Iran: Became a full member in 2023. d. Observers: Afghanistan, Belarus, Mongolia. e. Dialogue Partners: Turkey, Sri Lanka, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Cambodia, Nepal, Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE. 4. India and SCO a. Membership: India became a full member in 2017. b. Strategic Importance for India: i. Access to Central Asia for energy and connectivity. ii. Platform for counterterrorism cooperation. iii. Opportunity to balance China’s influence in Eurasia. c. Challenges: i. Presence of China and Pakistan creates diplomatic friction. ii. SCO’s economic initiatives often align with China’s BRI, which India opposes. |
Implications
- Economic Implications
- Persistent dependence on China for critical inputs affects India’s strategic autonomy.
- Limited trade opportunities with Russia and China mean US market remains crucial.
- Strategic and Security Implications
- SCO offers a limited platform to manage tensions with China, but challenges remain due to Pakistan factor and BRI.
- India’s continental strategy constrained by geography and disputes with China-Pakistan.
- Regional Dynamics
- China’s growing influence in South Asia challenges India’s leadership role in the region.
- US-China rivalry in South Asia puts India in a competitive diplomatic environment.
- Bilateral Gains with Japan
- Japan-India partnership can expand in technology, infrastructure, and maritime security, supporting India’s Act East Policy.
- Tokyo visit could help India diversify strategic dependence away from US and China.
- Diplomatic Significance
- Balancing ties among US, Japan, and China remains critical to India’s multipolar foreign policy strategy.
Challenges and Way Forward
| Challenges | Way Forward |
| High economic dependence on China | Accelerate domestic industrialisation and technology R&D under PLI schemes |
| Limited SCO leverage due to China-Pakistan axis | Use SCO for confidence-building with China while raising terror issues |
| Weak regional influence due to SAARC paralysis | Promote sub-regional groupings (BIMSTEC, IORA) as alternatives |
| Trade tensions with the US | Engage in negotiated settlements and diversify export destinations |
| Uncertainty in global alliances | Strengthen maritime partnerships with Japan, ASEAN, and QUAD |
Conclusion
Prime Minister Modi’s Asian tour comes at a time when India faces economic vulnerabilities, strategic competition, and regional flux. While the SCO summit provides an opportunity to stabilise ties with China, real strategic gains are more likely from Tokyo through defence, trade, and technology partnerships with Japan. India must leverage such partnerships to reduce dependency on China, manage tensions with the US, and preserve its strategic autonomy in a rapidly changing Asian order.
| EnsureIAS Mains Question Q. In the context of Prime Minister’s recent Asian tour, critically analyse the strategic relevance of India’s participation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) vis-à-vis its bilateral engagements with Japan. How can India balance economic dependencies and security concerns in an evolving Asian geopolitical landscape? (250 Words) |
| EnsureIAS Prelims Question Q. Which of the following best describes the recent economic challenge mentioned during PM Modi’s Asian tour? a. India’s growing trade surplus with China affecting US relations Answer: b Explanation: India faces a persistent trade deficit with China, which remains a major challenge. While India is trying to boost domestic manufacturing and reduce imports through initiatives like Atmanirbhar Bharat, the dependence on China for critical industrial goods, raw materials, and high-tech components (such as electronics, solar cells, active pharmaceutical ingredients) is still significant. This dependence creates strategic vulnerability, especially during geopolitical tensions. The government has raised this concern in various forums, including during the Asian tour, because economic interdependence with a strategic rival (China) has security implications. |
