Israel’s Recognition of Somaliland and China’s Strategic Dilemma

Context

In December 2025, Israel formally recognised Somaliland as an independent sovereign state. This decision has altered regional geopolitics and pushed Somaliland into the centre of great-power competition in the Horn of Africa.

Q1. Why is Israel’s recognition of Somaliland geopolitically significant?

1. Diplomatic Rupture
   1. Israel’s move breaks with the long-standing international position that treats Somaliland as part of Somalia.
   2. It risks encouraging other states to reconsider Somaliland’s status.
2. Regional Security Risks
   1. The decision may intensify proxy rivalries in the Horn of Africa.
   2. It could further militarise the Red Sea-Gulf of Aden maritime corridor.
3. Great-Power Implications
   1. The recognition has direct consequences for China, the United States, and Middle Eastern powers with strategic interests in the region.

Q2. Why does Israel’s move pose a major dilemma for China?

For China, Somaliland lies at the intersection of three core strategic interests:

1. Protection of the “One China” Principle
   1. China strongly opposes any form of separatism due to its position on Taiwan.
2. Security of the Red Sea Trade Route
   1. The Red Sea is vital for Chinese energy imports and global trade.
3. Managing Great-Power Competition in Africa
   1. China seeks to prevent rivals from gaining strategic footholds near its overseas assets.

Q3. How has China officially responded to Israel’s recognition?

1. China condemned Israel’s decision as legitimising separatism.
2. Beijing reiterated that Somaliland is an inseparable part of Somalia.
3. This stance is consistent with China’s rigid sovereignty doctrine and domestic concerns regarding Taiwan.

Q4. Why does Somaliland challenge China’s sovereignty doctrine?

1. De Facto Statehood
   1. Somaliland has maintained internal peace, built institutions, and held elections for over 30 years.
   2. This contrasts sharply with Somalia’s prolonged instability.
2. Limits of Rigid Sovereignty
   1. China does not accept internal legitimacy as a basis for statehood.
   2. However, Somaliland’s sustained governance exposes the practical limits of this approach.

Q5. How does the Taiwan factor deepen China’s discomfort?

1. In 2020, Somaliland established official ties with Taiwan.
2. Taiwan opened a representative office in Hargeisa and expanded cooperation.
3. Apart from Eswatini, Somaliland is the only African entity openly aligned with Taipei.
4. This directly challenges China’s diplomatic red lines.

Q6. Why is the Bab el-Mandeb region strategically crucial for China?

1. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden.
2. It is a critical maritime chokepoint under China’s Maritime Silk Road.
3. China established its first overseas military base in Djibouti in 2017 to secure this route.
4. Any rival security presence near this corridor threatens China’s leverage.

Q7. How could Israel’s move alter regional power dynamics?

1. International legitimacy for Somaliland could transform it into:
   1. A logistics hub
   2. A security and intelligence node
2. Possible backing from Israel, the UAE, and the United States would weaken China’s strategic dominance near Djibouti.
3. China risks losing its monopoly influence in the western Indian Ocean region.

Q8. What strategic options are available to China?

1. Diplomatic Blocking
   1. Use its position at the UN Security Council to prevent wider recognition.
2. Hybrid Measures
   1. Economic pressure
   2. Political lobbying
   3. Information campaigns through Chinese media networks such as StarTimes
3. Strategic Restraint
   1. Excessive coercion may push Somaliland closer to Taiwan and Western powers.
   2. Heavy-handed actions could damage China’s non-interference image.

Q9. How do wider geopolitical developments complicate China’s position?

1. Middle East Politics
   1. China’s pro-Palestinian stance strengthens its criticism of Israel.
   2. However, it risks entangling Beijing in West Asian political rivalries.
2. Growing Support for Somaliland
   1. Ethiopia’s 2024 MoU offering port access in exchange for recognition
   2. Rising interest in the U.S. Congress
   3. Tacit support from the UAE
3. Each new endorsement raises the cost for China of maintaining diplomatic isolation.

Conclusion

Israel’s recognition has transformed Somaliland from a marginal entity into a focal point of great-power rivalry. For China, the challenge is to balance sovereignty principles with strategic pragmatism in a region vital to global trade and security.