IITM Develop AI Model To Predict Dengue Outbreaks In India

IITM Develop AI Model To Predict Dengue Outbreaks In India

23-01-2025
  1. On 21 January 2025, Researchers at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, along with other institutions, developed an early warning system to predict potential dengue outbreaks.
  2. The system considers climate-related factors like temperature, rainfall, and humidity to predict outbreaks up to 2 months ahead.
  3. This system aims to give local health authorities enough time to prepare and prevent outbreaks before they get too big.
  4. The study, from IITM, also involved researchers from institutions like the University of Maryland (USA), University of Pune, University of Nottingham, and Maharashtra and Pune health departments.

Study Details:

  1. Study Title: Dengue Dynamics, Predictions, and Future Increase under Changing Monsoon Climate in India.
  2. Published in: Scientific Reports.

Key Findings of the Study:

  1. Climate and Dengue Relationship:

    1. The study shows that temperature, rainfall, and humidity are important factors that affect the spread of dengue, especially in cities like Pune, which is a major hotspot for the disease.
    2. The study found that:
      • Warm temperatures above 27°C.
      • Moderate and evenly spread rainfall.
      • Humidity levels between 60% and 78% during the monsoon season (June to September) all contribute to higher chances of dengue outbreaks.
      • Heavy rainfall (over 150mm in one week) can reduce dengue cases by washing away mosquito eggs and larvae.
  2. Projected Impact of Climate Change:

    1. Rising temperatures and irregular rainfall are expected to increase the number of dengue cases in the future.
    2. Without action, rising temperatures and changes in rainfall could lead to a 13% increase in dengue deaths by 2030 and a 23% to 40% increase by 2050.
  3. Temperature Trends and Dengue:

    1. Dengue, one of the fastest-spreading mosquito-borne diseases, is becoming a bigger problem worldwide due to climate change, with India contributing about a third of global cases.
    2. The study shows that warmer temperatures are expected to increase, which will likely lead to more dengue outbreaks in the future.
  4. AI Model for Dengue Predictions:

    1. The team used artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning to create a model that predicts when dengue outbreaks might happen.
    2. This model can give over 2 months of warning, allowing health departments to prepare and reduce the impact of outbreaks.
  5. Role of Local Authorities and Health Data:

    1. The early warning system allows health departments to take preventive actions early, reducing the spread of dengue.
    2. Sharing data between local health departments and scientists is key to making the system more effective.
    3. If health departments share information, the system can be designed to specific cities or districts, providing more accurate predictions.

Importance of the Early Warning System:

  1. Improving Forecasting:

    1. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) already provides extended forecasts for monsoon weather, ranging from 10 to 30 days.
    2. These forecasts can be used to improve dengue predictions.
    3. Changes in the monsoon weather, called monsoon intra-seasonal oscillations, can also help improve the accuracy of dengue forecasts.

What is Monsoon intra-seasonal oscillations (MISO) ?

  1. Monsoon intra-seasonal oscillations (MISO) are changes in the weather that happen during the monsoon season, usually from June to September.
  2. They are like cycles of rainy and dry periods that happen every few weeks within the same monsoon season.
    1. Active Phase: This is when the monsoon brings lots of rain and strong winds, making the weather wet.
    2. Break Phase: This is when the rain slows down or stops, and the weather becomes dry for a while.
  3. These changes are important because they can affect things like dengue outbreaks.
  4. Heavy rain can wash away mosquito eggs, but dry periods can let mosquitoes breed, increasing the risk of diseases like dengue.

Future Projections for Pune:

  1. Temperature Rise: Pune is expected to see an average temperature rise of 1.2°C to 3.5°C by the end of the century due to fossil fuel emissions.
  2. Projected Dengue Deaths in Pune:
    1. 2020–2040 (Near-term): Dengue deaths are expected to increase by 13% if global temperatures rise by 1.5°C.
    2. 2040–2060 (Mid-century): Dengue deaths may rise by 25% to 40% if global temperatures increase by 2°C.
    3. 2081–2100 (Late century): If emissions remain high, dengue deaths could rise by up to 112% by the end of the century.

Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune: Overview and History

  1. In the 1950s, India’s need to understand the monsoon, weather systems, and climate-related processes became critical due to its post-Independence economic development.
  2. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recognized the need for meteorological research and training in tropical countries and suggested creating meteorological research institutes.
  3. Based on this recommendation, the Indian Government approved the creation of IITM in 1962, as part of the country’s Third Five Year Plan.

History and Evolution

  1. Initial Establishment:

    1. The institute was first established as the Institute of Tropical Meteorology (ITM) on 17 November 1962 in Pune, as a part of the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
  2. Autonomy:

    1. In 1971, following a recommendation by the Committee for Organization of Scientific Research (COSR), the institute became an autonomous organization and was renamed Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM).
  3. Administrative Changes:

    1. Initially, IITM operated under the Ministry of Tourism and Civil Aviation.
    2. In 1985, it came under the Department of Science and Technology (DST), Ministry of Science & Technology.
    3. Since 12 July 2006, IITM has been part of the newly formed Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES).
  4. Growth and Development of Infrastructure:

    1. IITM initially operated from Ramdurg House (a building of IMD) and several rented locations in Pune.
    2. The Pashan campus began development in the 1980s, and by 1989, the entire institute moved to its current campus.

Functions and Role of IITM

  1. Research Focus: IITM is a premier research institute dedicated to generating scientific knowledge in meteorology and atmospheric sciences, which has practical applications in various sectors such as:
    • Agriculture
    • Economics
    • Health
    • Water resources
    • Transportation
    • Communications
  2. Monsoon Meteorology: The institute serves as a national center for both basic and applied research in monsoon meteorology, focusing on understanding and predicting monsoon patterns in India.

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